Annex 1 – Details of Economic and Fiscal Projections

Economic Projections

The average of private sector forecasts has been used as the basis for fiscal planning since 1994 and introduces an element of independence into the Government's fiscal forecast. This practice has been supported by international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund.

The Department of Finance Canada regularly surveys private sector economists on their views on the outlook for the Canadian economy. The economic forecast presented in this section is based on a survey conducted in December 2016.

The December 2016 survey included the views of 14 private sector economists:

In the December 2016 survey, private sector economists expected real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 1.9 per cent in 2017 and 2.0 per cent in 2018. They projected real GDP growth to slow to about 1.7 per cent on average per year over the remainder of the forecast horizon (Table A1.1).

Private sector economists expected GDP inflation (the broadest measure of economy-wide price increases) to pick up to 2.1 per cent in 2017 and to average 2.0 per cent per year over the following four years.

Private sector economists assumed West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices of US$54 per barrel on average in 2017. Crude oil prices were projected to reach US$64 per barrel by 2021.

Nominal GDP growth in the December 2016 survey was expected to be 4.1 per cent in 2017, 4.0 per cent in 2018, and about 3.7 per cent on average over the following three years. Overall, the projected level of nominal GDP (the broadest single measure of the tax base) in the December 2016 survey is lower than projected in the 2016 Fall Economic Statement by $5 billion in 2017, with the difference rising to $16 billion lower by 2021.

Private sector economists projected the unemployment rate to stand at 6.9 per cent in 2017 and to gradually decline to 6.4 per cent by 2021.

In the December 2016 survey, the outlook for the 10-year government bond rate is higher by 20 basis points per year, on average, compared to the Fall Economic Statement. This reflects the rise in U.S. and Canadian government bond yields in the last quarter of 2016. On the other hand, the outlook for short-term rates is lower from 2018 onwards, by an average of about 10 basis points per year.

The fourth-quarter Canadian Economic Accounts results were somewhat more positive than expected in the December 2016 survey, and suggest firmer economic momentum heading into 2017. However, uncertainty and risk continue to weigh on the domestic and global economy. Overall, the risks to the December 2016 economic outlook remain broadly balanced, and the outlook is an appropriate basis for fiscal planning.

Table A1.1
Average Private Sector Forecasts
per cent, unless otherwise indicated
  2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2016–
2021
Real GDP growth              
  Budget 2016 1.4 2.2 2.2 2.0 1.9
  2016 Fall Economic Statement 1.4 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.8
  Budget 2017 1.3 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.7
GDP inflation              
  Budget 2016 0.9 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.1
  2016 Fall Economic Statement 0.6 2.2 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.1 1.8
  Budget 2017 0.6 2.1 2.0 1.8 2.1 2.0 1.8
Nominal GDP growth              
  Budget 2016 2.3 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.1
  2016 Fall Economic Statement 2.0 4.3 3.7 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.7
  Budget 2017 2.0 4.1 4.0 3.5 3.8 3.8 3.5
Nominal GDP level (billions of dollars)              
  Budget 2016 2,033 2,126 2,218 2,310 2,404
  2016 Fall Economic Statement 2,026 2,114 2,191 2,279 2,368 2,463  –
  Budget 2017 2,025 2,109 2,194 2,271 2,357 2,447  –
  Difference between 2016 Fall Economic Statement and Budget 2017 -1 -5 3 -8 -11 -16 -6
3-month treasury bill rate              
  Budget 2016 0.5 0.7 1.6 2.4 2.7
  2016 Fall Economic Statement 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.6 1.9 2.4 1.3
  Budget 2017 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.8 2.3 1.2
10-year government bond rate              
  Budget 2016 1.6 2.3 3.0 3.4 3.6
  2016 Fall Economic Statement 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.5 2.8 3.3 2.2
  Budget 2017 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.7 3.0 3.3 2.4
Exchange rate (US cents/C$)              
  Budget 2016 72.1 75.9 79.1 81.5 83.1
  2016 Fall Economic Statement 75.8 77.6 79.5 80.2 81.7 83.2 79.7
  Budget 2017 75.5 74.5 76.1 77.4 79.3 81.3 77.4
Unemployment rate              
  Budget 2016 7.1 6.9 6.5 6.4 6.3
  2016 Fall Economic Statement 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.5 6.2 6.7
  Budget 2017 7.0 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.4 6.7
Consumer Price Index inflation              
  Budget 2016 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
  2016 Fall Economic Statement 1.6 2.1 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.0 1.9
  Budget 2017 1.5 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9
U.S. real GDP growth              
  Budget 2016 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.1
  2016 Fall Economic Statement 1.6 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0
  Budget 2017 1.6 2.3 2.3 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0
WTI crude oil price ($US per barrel)              
  Budget 2016 40 52 59 63 63
  2016 Fall Economic Statement 44 54 57 59 60 65 57
  Budget 2017 43 54 59 56 59 64 56
Notes: For Budget 2016 and the 2016 Fall Economic Statement, GDP figures have been restated to reflect the historical revisions to the Canadian System of National Accounts, which were published along with data for the third quarter of 2016, released on November 30, 2016. Figures for Budget 2017 (the December 2016 survey) have not been restated to reflect the historical revisions to the Canadian System of National Accounts, which were published along with data for the fourth quarter of 2016, released on March 2, 2017.
Sources: For Budget 2016, Department of Finance Canada February 2016 survey of private sector economists; for the 2016 Fall Economic Statement, Department of Finance Canada September 2016 survey of private sector economists; for Budget 2017, Department of Finance Canada December 2016 survey of private sector economists; Statistics Canada.

Fiscal Projections

The remainder of this annex outlines changes to the fiscal projections since the 2016 Fall Economic Statement (Table A1.2).

Table A1.2
Changes in the Fiscal Outlook Since the 2016 Fall Economic Statement (FES 2016)
billions of dollars
  Projection
  2016–
2017  
2017–
2018  
2018–
2019  
2019–
2020  
2020–
2021  
2021–
2022  
FES 2016 budgetary balance -25.1 -27.8 -25.9 -19.3 -16.8 -14.6
Economic and fiscal developments            
  Budgetary revenues            
    Income taxes 1.0 0.9 1.0 -0.2 -1.2 -1.3
    Excise taxes/duties 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9
     Employment Insurance premiums 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
    Other revenues -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6
    Total 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.1 -0.7 -1.0
  Program expenses            
    Major transfers to persons 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1
    Major transfers to other levels of government -0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
     Direct program expenses 1.9 1.6 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.6
     Total 1.6 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.5
  Public debt charges 0.6 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2
Total economic and fiscal developments 3.2 2.4 1.9 1.0 -0.4 -0.7
Revised budgetary balance before policy actions and investments -21.8 -25.4 -24.0 -18.3 -17.3 -15.3
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. A negative number implies a deterioration in the budgetary balance (lower revenues or higher spending). A positive number implies an improvement in the budgetary balance (higher revenues or lower spending).

Impact of Economic and Fiscal Developments Since the 2016 Fall Economic Statement (Before Policy Actions and Investments)

Relative to FES 2016, projected budgetary revenues are higher in the first four years of the forecast primarily due to higher projected corporate and non-resident income tax revenues based on recent financial results. However, this growth is more than offset in the outer years by lower projected personal income tax revenues, reflecting weaker economic growth expectations in those years, as reflected in the December survey of private sector economists.

Excise taxes/duties are higher largely as a result of higher projected customs import duties. Previously, customs import duties were slated to decline based on the anticipated introduction date of January 1, 2017 for the Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement. Based on recent developments, CETA is now expected to enter into force in mid-2017, resulting in no forgone revenues in 2016–17, and somewhat smaller forgone revenues in 2017–18. In addition, given the uncertainty surrounding the TPP agreement, it is now assumed that tariffs will continue to be charged at existing rates, and the impact of lower tariffs has been removed from projected revenues. Together, these changes have resulted in an increase in projected customs import duties over the forecast horizon.

Employment Insurance premium revenues are virtually unchanged in all years of the forecast.

Other revenues, such as those resulting from loans and investments, interest and penalties, enterprise Crown corporations' profits and assets held in the Exchange Fund Account, are lower in all years of the forecast horizon largely as a result of lower year-to-date program revenues in 2016–17 and downward revisions to projected short-term interest rates for the remaining years (lowering the rate of return on interest-bearing assets).

With respect to expenses, major transfers to persons are largely unchanged, as a decrease in elderly benefits of approximately $0.1 billion per year, due to lower forecasted inflation, is generally offset by a projected increase in the Canada Child Benefit ranging between $0.1 billion and $0.2 billion per year. The increase in children's benefits is driven by lower projected household income resulting from the weaker economic outlook.

Major transfers to other levels of government are higher in the near term compared to FES 2016 projections. The increase in the early years is driven by revised tax-point transfers under the Quebec Abatement.

Compared to FES 2016, direct program expenses are projected to be lower, particularly in the near term. The decrease is driven by: year-to-date results, which carry forward to a limited extent over the forecast horizon; lower expenses for flow-through items (items which give rise to an equal and offsetting change in revenues); and lower capital amortization expenses based on current capital expenditure profiles.

Compared to FES 2016, public debt charges are lower in 2016–17, reflecting year‑to-date results, notably in respect of bond buybacks. From 2017–18 onwards, public debt charges are higher, reflecting the impact of higher forecasted long‑term interest rates on interest-bearing debt—market debt, public sector pension accounts, and employee future benefits. 

Impact of Policy Actions Announced Since the 2016 Fall Economic Statement

The Government's spending plans are generally laid out in the annual budget. However, due to operational reasons, some funding decisions may be required outside of the budget cycle. Consistent with the Government's commitment to open and transparent spending, all such "off-cycle" funding decisions taken since FES 2016 are detailed in Table A1.3. Altogether, these actions are expected to reduce the budgetary balance by approximately $0.9 billion over six years starting in 2016–17.

Table A1.3
Policy Actions Announced Since the 2016 Fall Economic Statement
millions of dollars
  2016–
2017  
2017–
2018  
2018–
2019  
2019–
2020  
2020–
2021  
2021–
2022  
Implementing Canada's Oceans Protection Plan  -216 -334 -350 -326 -291
Supporting cost fluctuations related to international programs at Global Affairs Canada -18 -48 -33 -33 -33 -33
Creating the Atlantic Fisheries Fund1 -47 -47 -47 -47 -47
Renewing Operation UNIFIER -29 -29
Investments in border security -98 -143
Eliminating tariffs on certain food manufacturing ingredients -4 -19 -19 -19 -19 -19
Enhancing electoral participation and integrity -16 -9 -11 -9 -9
Protecting the Last Ice Area -2 -4 -4 -2
Monitoring of the Trans Mountain oil pipeline -9 -16 -16 -14 -10
Supporting Ministers' Regional Offices  -3 -3 -3 -3 -3
Monitoring of the Line 3 oil pipeline -5 -5 -5 -3 -3
Welcoming Yazidi refugees and other survivors of Daesh -16 -9 -3
Compensation for drywall contractors and Fort McMurray residents in relation to recommendations made by the Canadian International Trade Tribunal -12
Supporting judicial compensation and benefits
Total Fiscal Measures Since FES 2016 -121 -565 -506 -489 -455 -414
  Less: funds existing in the fiscal framework or sourced from departmental resources 112 290 373 265 260 232
  Less: projected revenues/savings 14 14 14 14 14
Net Fiscal Impact -9 -261 -119 -210 -181 -168
Notes: Totals may not add due to rounding. A negative number implies a deterioration in the budgetary balance (lower revenues or higher spending). A positive number implies an improvement in the budgetary balance (higher revenues or lower spending). If no amount is shown, either the impact is less than $0.5 million or no impact is expected.
1 Amounts shown are notional. Actual funding profile for the $325 million Atlantic Fisheries Fund is subject to further discussions with provinces.

Impact of Investments Announced in Budget 2017

Table A1.4 summarizes the net fiscal costs of investments announced in Budget 2017. The cost of policy actions undertaken since FES 2016 and investments proposed in this budget is approximately $5.7 billion over six years, starting in 2016–17. Reflecting risks to the economic and fiscal forecast, Budget 2017 includes an adjustment for risk of $3.0 billion in 2017–18 and future years.  

Table A1.4
Investments Included in Budget 2017 by Chapter
billions of dollars
  Projection
  2016–
2017  
2017–
2018  
2018–
2019  
2019–
2020  
2020–
2021  
2021–
2022  
Revised budgetary balance before policy actions and investments -21.8 -25.4 -24.0 -18.3 -17.3 -15.3
  Policy actions since FES 20161 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2
  Investments in Budget 2017            
    Skills, Innovation and Middle Class Jobs -0.1 -1.2 -1.8 -1.8 -1.8 -1.6
    Communities Built for Change 0.0 0.0 -3.4 -5.2 -5.7 -6.3
    A Strong Canada at Home and in the World -0.2 -0.9 -1.4 -1.9 -2.0 -1.8
    Tax Fairness for the Middle Class 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.4
    Other2 -0.9 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1
  Total investments in Budget 2017 -1.2 -1.3 -5.4 -7.6 -8.1 -8.2
    Less funds existing in the fiscal framework, sourced from departmental resources or  projected revenues 0.0 1.5 5.2 5.7 6.8 7.9
  Net fiscal impact of investments in Budget 2017 -1.2 0.2 -0.2 -1.9 -1.3 -0.4
Total policy actions and investments -1.2 -0.1 -0.3 -2.1 -1.5 -0.5
Budgetary balance (without risk adjustment) -23.0 -25.5 -24.4 -20.4 -18.7 -15.8
  Adjustment for risk   -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0
Final budgetary balance -23.0 -28.5 -27.4 -23.4 -21.7 -18.8
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. A negative number implies a deterioration in the budgetary balance (lower revenues or higher spending). A positive number implies an improvement in the budgetary balance (higher revenues or lower spending).
1 Table A1.3 provides a detailed list of policy actions announced since FES 2016.
2 Reflects the net fiscal impact of measures that are not announced and is presented at the aggregate level. These measures include provisions for anticipated Cabinet decisions not yet made and funding decisions related to national security, commercial sensitivity and litigation issues.

Summary Statement of Transactions

Table A1.5 summarizes the Government's projected financial position over the forecast horizon. These projections are based on the December private sector survey, and include all new policy decisions.

After accounting for Budget 2017 proposals, the budgetary balance is expected to show deficits of $23.0 billion in 2016–17 and $28.5 billion in 2017–18. Over the remainder of the forecast horizon, deficits are expected to decline gradually from $27.4 billion in 2018–19 to $18.8 billion in 2021–22. The federal debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to decline gradually after 2018–19 to the end of the fiscal horizon, reaching 30.9 per cent in 2021–22.

Table A1.5
Summary Statement of Transactions
billions of dollars
  Projection
  2015–
2016  
2016–
2017  
2017–
2018  
2018–
2019  
2019–
2020  
2020–
2021  
2021–
2022  
Budgetary revenues 295.5 292.1 304.7 315.6 327.7 340.3 356.0
  Program expenses 270.8 290.9 305.4 313.7 319.8 328.6 338.5
  Public debt charges 25.6 24.3 24.7 26.3 28.3 30.4 33.3
Total expenses 296.4 315.1 330.2 340.0 348.1 359.0 371.8
  Adjustment for risk     -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0
Budgetary balance -1.0 -23.0 -28.5 -27.4 -23.4 -21.7 -18.8
  Financial position              
    Total liabilities 1,059.6 1,088.3 1,127.5 1,165.0 1,199.1 1,233.6 1,266.8
    Total financial assets1 365.8 372.0 381.6 390.7 400.5 412.8 427.0
    Net debt 693.8 716.3 745.9 774.4 798.6 820.8 839.8
    Non-financial assets 77.8 79.3 80.4 81.4 82.3 82.7 82.9
Federal debt1 616.0 637.1 665.5 692.9 716.3 738.1 756.9
Per cent of GDP              
  Budgetary revenues 14.9 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.5
  Program expenses 13.6 14.4 14.5 14.3 14.1 13.9 13.8
  Public debt charges 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4
  Budgetary balance 0.0 -1.1 -1.4 -1.2 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8
  Federal debt 31.0 31.5 31.6 31.6 31.5 31.3 30.9
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.
1 The projected level of federal debt for 2016–17 includes an estimate of other comprehensive income of $2.0 billion.

Outlook for Budgetary Revenues

Table A1.6
Revenue Outlook
billions of dollars
  Projection
  2015–
2016  
2016–
2017  
2017–
2018  
2018–
2019  
2019–
2020  
2020–
2021  
2021–
2022  
Income taxes            
  Personal income tax 144.9 143.2 152.1 157.8 164.4 171.0 178.6
  Corporate income tax 41.4 42.5 43.6 44.4 45.7 47.6 50.1
  Non-resident income tax 6.5 6.6 6.9 7.1 7.5 7.8 8.0
  Total income tax 192.8 192.4 202.6 209.3 217.5 226.3 236.8
Excise taxes/duties              
  Goods and Services Tax 33.0 33.7 35.1 36.4 37.8 39.3 41.0
  Customs import duties 5.4 5.4 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.7
  Other excise taxes/duties 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.7 11.8 12.0 12.0
  Total excise taxes/duties 49.8 50.6 51.7 53.2 54.8 56.7 58.7
Total tax revenues 242.7 243.0 254.3 262.5 272.3 283.1 295.5
Employment Insurance premium revenues 23.1 22.3 21.2 22.4 23.2 24.1 25.0
Other revenues              
  Crown corporations 12.5 10.1 11.4 11.9 12.5 12.6 13.5
  Other programs 15.0 14.7 15.8 16.6 17.3 17.9 19.0
  Net foreign exchange 2.3 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.7 3.0
  Total other revenues 29.7 26.7 29.1 30.6 32.2 33.1 35.5
Total budgetary revenues 295.5 292.1 304.7 315.6 327.7 340.3 356.0
Per cent of GDP              
  Personal income tax 7.3 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.3
  Corporate income tax 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
  Goods and Services Tax 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
  Total tax revenues 12.2 12.0 12.1 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.1
Employment Insurance premium revenues 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Other revenues 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5
Total budgetary revenues 14.9 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.5
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

Table A1.6 sets out the Government's projection for budgetary revenues. Overall, a slight pick-up in economic growth drives a 4.3 per cent increase in projected revenues in 2017–18, up from a 1.1 per cent decline in 2016–17. Budgetary revenues are then projected to grow at an average of 4.0 per cent per year from 2018–19 to 2021–22, in line with the outlook for nominal GDP.

Personal income tax revenues, the largest component of budgetary revenues, are projected to decrease by $1.7 billion, or 1.1 per cent, to $143.2 billion in 2016–17. This reduction reflects the impact of tax planning by high-income individuals to recognize income in the 2015 tax year before the new 33 per cent tax rate came into effect in 2016. This behaviour raised revenues in 2015–16 but will lower them in 2016–17. Over the remainder of the projection period, personal income tax revenues are forecast to increase somewhat faster than growth in nominal GDP, averaging 4.5 per cent annual growth, reflecting personal income growth combined with the progressive nature of the personal income tax system.

Corporate income tax revenues are projected to increase by $1.1 billion, or 2.6 per cent, to $42.5 billion in 2016–17, reflecting strength in recent financial results. Over the remainder of the projection period, corporate income tax revenues are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.4 per cent, less than the rate of growth in nominal GDP, reflecting the projected outlook for profit growth and the anticipated use of loss carry-forwards.

Non-resident income tax revenues are income taxes paid by non-residents on Canadian-sourced income, notably dividends and interest payments. For 2016–17, non-resident income tax revenues are projected to increase by $0.1 billion, or 2.2 per cent. Over the remainder of the projection period, non-resident income tax revenues are projected to increase at an average annual rate of 3.8 per cent, in line with projected growth in dividends, interest payments and profits.

Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenues are forecast to grow by 2.2 per cent in 2016–17. Over the remainder of the projection period, GST revenues are forecast to grow by 4.0 per cent per year on average, based on projected growth in taxable consumption.

Customs import duties are projected to remain unchanged in 2016–17 and to decrease by $0.5 billion, or 8.5 per cent, in 2017–18. This decrease reflects the elimination of most of the tariffs/duties on imports from the European Union under CETA. Over the remainder of the projection horizon, annual growth in customs import duties is projected to average 3.7 per cent based on projected growth in imports.

Other excise taxes and duties are projected to increase by 0.9 per cent in 2016–17, consistent with year-to-date results. Over the remainder of the forecast horizon, other excise taxes and duties are expected to grow at an average annual rate of 0.7 per cent based on historical consumption trends.

Employment Insurance (EI) premium revenues are projected to decline by 3.3 per cent in 2016–17 and by 4.8 per cent in 2017–18 due to the introduction of the seven-year break-even rate mechanism in 2017. This new rate-setting mechanism ensures that EI premiums are no higher than needed to pay for the EI program over time. The break-even rate is estimated to increase in 2018, due to a weaker economic outlook than that which formed the basis for the 2017 EI premium rate and the impact of the EI measures announced in Budget 2017. EI premium revenues are expected to resume their upward trend in 2018–19 based on projected growth in wages and salaries and the projected EI premium rate over the remaining forecast horizon.

Employment Insurance Operating Account
Employment Insurance Operating Account Projections
billions of dollars
  2015–
2016  
2016–
2017  
2017–
2018  
2018–
2019  
2019–
2020  
2020–
2021  
2021–
2022  
   
EI premium revenues 23.1 22.3 21.2 22.4 23.2 24.1 25.0    
EI benefits1 19.4 21.0 22.0 22.0 22.6 23.2 23.7    
EI administration and other expenses2 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.8    
  20153 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 (…) 2025
EI Operating Account annual balance 2.6 1.1 -2.7 -1.0 -0.7 -0.6 0.0   1.2
EI Operating Account cumulative balance 0.9 2.0 -0.7 -1.7 -2.5 -3.1 -3.1   0.14
Projected premium rate (per $100 of insurable earnings) 1.88 1.88 1.63 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68   1.68
1 EI benefits include regular EI benefits, sickness, maternity, parental, compassionate care, fishing and work-sharing benefits, and employment benefits and support measures. These represent about 90 per cent of total EI program expenses. 
2 The remaining EI costs relate mainly to administration and are included in direct program expenses.
3 Values for 2015 are actual data. Values for 2016 and future years are a projection.
4 The EI Operating Account cumulative balance does not reach exactly zero at the end of the seven-year period as projected EI rates are rounded to the nearest whole cent per $100 of insurable earnings, in accordance with the Employment Insurance Act.

The Employment Insurance Operating Account operates within the Consolidated Revenue Fund. As such, EI-related revenues and expenses that are credited and charged to the Account, respectively, in accordance with the Employment Insurance Act, are consolidated with those of the Government, and therefore impact the budgetary balance. For consistency with the EI premium rate, which is set on a calendar-year basis with the objective of having the Account break even over time, the annual and cumulative balances of the Account are also presented on a calendar-year basis.

The EI Operating Account is expected to record an annual surplus of $1.1 billion in 2016, and then a deficit of $2.7 billion in 2017, as the EI premium rate has been reduced from $1.88 in 2016 to the recently announced seven-year break-even rate of $1.63 in 2017. The break-even rate is then estimated to increase to $1.69 per $100 of insurable earnings in 2018, due to a weaker economic outlook and the impact of the EI measures announced in Budget 2017. However, the EI premium rate for 2018 is capped at $1.68 per $100 of insurable earnings to reflect the maximum 5-cent annual increase allowed under the Employment Insurance Act. The break-even rate for 2019 is projected to be $1.68 per $100 of insurable earnings. For fiscal planning purposes, an EI premium rate of $1.68 has been applied from 2018 onwards such that the EI Operating Account achieves cumulative balance by 2025.

Other revenues are made up of three broad components: Crown corporation revenues from consolidated Crown corporations and net income from enterprise Crown corporations; other program revenues from returns on investments, proceeds from the sales of goods and services, and other miscellaneous revenues; and foreign exchange revenues.

Crown corporation revenues are projected to decrease by 18.7 per cent in 2016–17. This decrease largely reflects that 2015–16 revenues were supported by a one-time fiscal gain of $2.1 billion realized on the sale of the Government's remaining holdings of General Motors common shares. From 2017–18 to 2021–22, these revenues are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 6.0 per cent, reflecting Crown corporations' corporate plan projections.

Other program revenues are affected by interest rate movements, exchange rate movements (which affect the Canadian-dollar value of foreign-denominated assets) and flow-through items that give rise to an equal and offsetting expense and therefore do not impact the budgetary balance. These revenues are projected to decrease by $0.3 billion, or 1.4 per cent, in 2016–17. Over the remainder of the projection period, other program revenues are projected to increase at an average annual rate of 5.2 per cent, largely as a result of the projected increase in interest rates.

Net foreign exchange revenues, which consist mainly of returns on investments held in the Exchange Fund Account, are volatile and sensitive to fluctuations in foreign exchange rates and foreign interest rates. These revenues are expected to decline in 2016–17, due in large part to significant one-time gains on the sale of investments in the Exchange Fund Account in 2015–16, which are not expected to reoccur. Over the remainder of the projection period, net foreign exchange revenues are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 10.1 per cent, reflecting projected increases in interest rates.

Outlook for Program Expenses

Table A1.7
Program Expenses Outlook
billions of dollars
    Projection
  2015–
2016  
2016–
2017  
2017–
2018  
2018–
2019  
2019–
2020  
2020–
2021  
2021–
2022  
Major transfers to persons              
  Elderly benefits 45.5 48.3 51.1 53.9 57.0 60.2 63.7
  Employment Insurance benefits1 19.4 21.0 22.0 22.0 22.6 23.2 23.7
  Children's benefits 18.0 21.9 23.0 22.8 22.5 22.8 23.2
  Total 82.9 91.2 96.1 98.8 102.1 106.2 110.6
Major transfers to other levels of government              
  Canada Health Transfer 34.0 36.1 37.1 38.4 39.9 41.4 42.9
  Canada Social Transfer 13.0 13.3 13.7 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.5
  Equalization 17.3 17.9 18.3 18.9 19.6 20.3 21.1
  Territorial Formula Financing 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9
  Gas Tax Fund 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3
  Other fiscal arrangements2 -4.0 -4.3 -4.7 -4.8 -5.1 -5.3 -5.6
  Total 65.9 68.7 70.2 72.5 74.9 77.5 80.1
Direct program expenses              
  Transfer payments 34.9 42.7 45.4 47.8 47.9 49.5 51.1
  Capital amortization 4.7 5.0 5.5 5.8 6.2 6.5 6.7
  Operating expenses 82.5 83.2 88.3 88.8 88.6 88.9 89.9
  Total 122.1 130.9 139.1 142.4 142.7 144.9 147.8
Total program expenses 270.8 290.9 305.4 313.7 319.8 328.6 338.5
Per cent of GDP              
  Major transfers to persons 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
  Major transfers to other levels of government 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3
  Direct program expenses 6.1 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.3 6.1 6.0
  Total program expenses 13.6 14.4 14.5 14.3 14.1 13.9 13.8
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.
1 EI benefits include regular EI benefits, sickness, maternity, parental, compassionate care, fishing and work-sharing benefits, and employment benefits and support measures. These represent about 90 per cent of total EI program expenses. The remaining EI costs relate mainly to administration and are part of direct program expenses.
2 Other fiscal arrangements include the Youth Allowances Recovery; Alternative Payments for Standing Programs, which represent a recovery from Quebec of a tax-point transfer; statutory subsidies; payments under the 2005 Offshore Arrangements; and advance fiscal stabilization payments to Alberta and Newfoundland and Labrador with respect to 2015–16.

Table A1.7 provides an overview of the projections for program expenses by major component. Program expenses consist of major transfers to persons, major transfers to other levels of government and direct program expenses.

Major transfers to persons are projected to increase from $91.2 billion in 2016–17 to $110.6 billion in 2021–22. Major transfers to persons consist of elderly, EI and children's benefits.

Elderly benefits, which are comprised of Old Age Security, Guaranteed Income Supplement and Allowance payments to qualifying seniors, are projected to grow from $48.3 billion in 2016–17 to $63.7 billion in 2021–22, or approximately 5.7 per cent per year—faster than nominal GDP. The expected increase in elderly benefits is due to both projected consumer price inflation, to which benefits are fully indexed, and an expected increase in the population of eligible recipients.

EI benefits are projected to increase by 8.4 per cent to $21.0 billion in 2016–17. This growth is in line with year-to-date results and the roll-out of EI benefit measures announced in Budget 2016. Over the remainder of the projection period, EI benefits are projected to grow moderately, averaging 2.4 per cent annually. This is due to growth in average weekly benefits and the impact of EI measures announced in Budget 2017, which are partially offset by a decline in the number of regular beneficiaries, reflecting the expected improvement in the labour market.

Children's benefits are projected to rise from $21.9 billion in 2016–17 to $23.2 billion in 2021–22, reflecting the new Canada Child Benefit, which replaced the Canada Child Tax Benefit and the Universal Child Care Benefit as of July 2016, and will be indexed to consumer price inflation beginning in 2020.

Major transfers to other levels of government, which include the Canada Health Transfer (CHT), the Canada Social Transfer (CST), Equalization, Territorial Formula Financing and the Gas Tax Fund, among others, are expected to increase over the forecast horizon, from $68.7 billion in 2016–17 to $80.1 billion in 2021–22.

The CHT is projected to grow from $36.1 billion in 2016–17 to $42.9 billion in 2021–22. In 2016–17, the CHT is legislated to grow by 6.0 per cent. Starting in 2017–18, the CHT will grow in line with a three-year moving average of nominal GDP growth, with funding guaranteed to increase by at least 3.0 per cent per year. The CST is legislated to grow at 3.0 per cent per year, increasing from $13.3 billion in 2016–17 to $15.5 billion in 2021–22. The Gas Tax Fund is projected to grow from $2.1 billion in 2016–17 to $2.3 billion in 2021–22 as these payments are indexed at 2.0 per cent per year, with increases applied in $100 million increments.

Direct program expenses are projected to rise from $130.9 billion in 2016–17 to $147.8 billion in 2021–22. Direct program expenses include operating expenses, transfer payments administered by departments and capital amortization.

Overall, transfer payments are projected to increase from $42.7 billion in 2016–17 to $51.1 billion in 2021–22. This increase reflects growth in transfers to support investments in infrastructure, to develop new technologies and conduct research, and to support training and educational programs, as well as the impact of the recent agreements for health care funding to provinces and territories with the federal government.

Operating expenses reflect the cost of doing business for more than 100 government departments and agencies. Operating expenses are projected to increase from $83.2 billion in 2016–17 to $88.3 billion in 2017–18, reflecting normal growth in government operations, as well as higher expenses for the Canadian Commercial Corporation (which are fully offset by higher revenues) and measures announced in FES 2016 and this budget. Growth is projected to moderate over the remainder of the projection period, with operating expenses reaching $89.9 billion by 2021–22.

Capital amortization is expected to increase from $5.0 billion in 2016–17 to $6.7 billion in 2021–22 as a result of recent and planned investments and upgrades to existing federal capital.

Financial Source/Requirement

The budgetary balance is presented on a full accrual basis of accounting, recording government revenues and expenses when they are earned or incurred, regardless of when the cash is received or paid.

In contrast, the financial source/requirement measures the difference between cash coming in to the government and cash going out. This measure is affected not only by the budgetary balance, but also by the Government's non-budgetary transactions. These include changes in federal employee pension liabilities; changes in non-financial assets; investing activities through loans, investments and advances; and changes in other financial assets and liabilities, including foreign exchange activities.

Table A1.8
The Budgetary Balance, Non-Budgetary Transactions and Financial Source/Requirement
billions of dollars
    Projection
  2015–
2016  
2016–
2017  
2017–
2018  
2018–
2019  
2019–
2020  
2020–
2021  
2021–
2022  
Budgetary balance -1.0 -23.0 -28.5 -27.4 -23.4 -21.7 -18.8
Non-budgetary transactions              
  Pensions and other accounts 8.3 7.4 3.5 4.4 4.1 2.4 1.2
  Non-financial assets -3.1 -1.5 -1.1 -1.0 -0.9 -0.5 -0.2
  Loans, investments and advances              
    Enterprise Crown corporations -4.4 -3.3 -4.2 -5.0 -4.9 -4.7 -5.5
    Other -0.5 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -0.9 -0.7 -0.7
    Total -4.9 -4.2 -5.3 -6.1 -5.9 -5.4 -6.2
  Other transactions              
    Accounts payable, receivable, accruals and allowances -10.2 1.6 -7.2 -3.6 -3.9 -4.3 -4.9
    Foreign exchange activities -8.5 -1.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -2.8 -3.3
    Total -18.7 0.3 -7.3 -3.8 -4.2 -7.1 -8.2
Total -18.5 2.0 -10.2 -6.5 -6.8 -10.6 -13.4
Financial source/requirement -19.5 -21.0 -38.7 -33.9 -30.2 -32.3 -32.3
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

As shown in Table A1.8, a financial requirement is projected over the entire forecast period. The projected financial requirements for 2016–17 to 2021–22 largely reflect requirements associated with the budgetary balance, increases in retained earnings of enterprise Crown corporations, and growth in other assets, including financing of the Exchange Fund Account.

A financial source is projected for pensions and other accounts for 2016–17 to 2021–22. Pensions and other accounts include the activities of the Government of Canada's employee pension plans and those of federally appointed judges and Members of Parliament, as well as a variety of other employee future benefit plans, such as health care and dental plans, and disability and other benefits for veterans and others. The financial source for pensions and other accounts largely reflects adjustments for pension and benefit expenses not funded in the period.

Financial requirements for non-financial assets mainly reflect the difference between cash outlays for the acquisition of new tangible capital assets and the amortization of capital assets included in the budgetary balance. They also include disposals of tangible capital assets and changes in inventories and prepaid expenses. A net cash requirement of $1.1 billion is estimated for 2017–18.

Loans, investments and advances include the Government's investments in enterprise Crown corporations, such as Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), Export Development Canada (EDC), the Business Development Bank of Canada (BDC) and Farm Credit Canada (FCC). They also include loans, investments and advances to national and provincial governments and international organizations, and for government programs. The projected requirements for enterprise Crown corporations from 2016–17 to 2021–22 reflect retained earnings of enterprise Crown corporations as well as the Government's decision in Budget 2007 to meet all the borrowing needs of CMHC, BDC and FCC through its own domestic debt issuance. In general, loans, investments and advances are expected to generate additional revenues for the Government in the form of interest or additional net profits of enterprise Crown corporations, which partly offset debt charges associated with these borrowing requirements. These revenues are reflected in projections of the budgetary balance.

Other transactions include the payment of tax refunds and other accounts payable, the collection of taxes and other accounts receivable, the conversion of other accrual adjustments included in the budgetary balance into cash, as well as foreign exchange activities. Projected cash requirements associated with other transactions mainly reflect forecast increases in the Government's official international reserves held in the Exchange Fund Account, as per the prudential liquidity plan, as well as projected growth in accounts receivable, in line with historical trends.

Risks to the Fiscal Projections

Risks associated with the economic outlook are the greatest source of uncertainty for fiscal projections. To help quantify these risks in respect of their impact on the fiscal outlook, tables illustrating the sensitivity of the budgetary balance to a number of economic shocks are provided below.

Besides the economic outlook, there are other unique sources of upside or downside risks to the fiscal projections, such as the volatility in the relationships between fiscal variables and the underlying activities to which they relate. For example, the relationship between personal income taxes and personal income, the extent to which corporations use losses to reduce taxable income in previous and future years, or the extent to which departments and agencies do not fully use all of the resources appropriated by Parliament can fluctuate for reasons not directly linked to economic variables. These fluctuations introduce an additional level of uncertainty for fiscal projections.

Sensitivity of the Budgetary Balance to Economic Shocks

Changes in economic assumptions affect the projections for revenues and expenses. The following tables illustrate the sensitivity of the budgetary balance to a number of economic shocks:

These sensitivities are generalized rules of thumb that assume any decrease in economic activity is proportional across income and expenditure components, and are meant to provide a broad illustration of the impact of economic shocks on the outlook for the budgetary balance. Actual economic shocks may have different fiscal impacts. For example, they may be concentrated in specific sectors of the economy or cause different responses in key economic variables (e.g. GDP inflation and CPI inflation may have different responses to a given shock).

Table A1.9
Estimated Impact of a One-Year, 1-Percentage-Point Decrease in Real GDP Growth on Federal Revenues, Expenses and Budgetary Balance
billions of dollars
  Year 1 Year 2 Year 5
Federal revenues      
  Tax revenues      
    Personal income tax -3.3 -3.2 -3.5
    Corporate income tax -0.4 -0.4 -0.5
    Goods and Services Tax -0.4 -0.4 -0.4
    Other -0.2 -0.2 -0.2
    Total tax revenues -4.2 -4.1 -4.6
  Employment Insurance premiums 0.1 0.6 0.6
  Other revenues -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
Total budgetary revenues -4.1 -3.6 -4.0
Federal expenses
  Major transfers to persons
    Elderly benefits 0.0 0.0 0.0
    Employment Insurance benefits 0.8 0.7 0.5
    Children's benefits 0.0 0.1 0.1
    Total 0.8 0.8 0.6
  Other program expenses -0.2 -0.3 -0.5
  Public debt charges 0.0 0.1 0.5
Total expenses 0.6 0.6 0.6
Budgetary balance -4.7 -4.2 -4.6
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

A 1-percentage-point decrease in real GDP growth proportional across income and expenditure components reduces the budgetary balance by $4.7 billion in the first year, $4.2 billion in the second year and $4.6 billion in the fifth year (Table A1.9).

Table A1.10
Estimated Impact of a One-Year, 1-Percentage-Point Decrease in GDP Inflation on Federal Revenues, Expenses and Budgetary Balance
billions of dollars
  Year 1 Year 2 Year 5
Federal revenues      
  Tax revenues      
    Personal income tax -2.5 -1.7 -1.6
    Corporate income tax -0.4 -0.4 -0.5
    Goods and Services Tax -0.4 -0.4 -0.4
    Other -0.2 -0.2 -0.2
    Total tax revenues -3.4 -2.6 -2.7
  Employment Insurance premiums -0.1 -0.1 -0.2
  Other revenues -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
Total budgetary revenues -3.6 -2.9 -3.0
Federal expenses      
  Major transfers to persons      
    Elderly benefits -0.4 -0.5 -0.6
    Employment Insurance benefits -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
    Children's benefits 0.0 0.1 0.1
    Total -0.4 -0.5 -0.6
  Other program expenses -0.5 -0.6 -1.2
  Public debt charges -0.5 0.0 0.2
Total expenses -1.4 -1.1 -1.6
Budgetary balance -2.1 -1.8 -1.4
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

A 1-percentage-point decrease in nominal GDP growth proportional across income and expenditure components resulting solely from lower GDP inflation (assuming that the CPI moves in line with GDP inflation) lowers the budgetary balance by $2.1 billion in the first year, $1.8 billion in the second year and $1.4 billion in the fifth year (Table A1.10).

Table A1.11
Estimated Impact of a Sustained 100-Basis-Point Increase in All Interest Rates on Federal Revenues, Expenses and Budgetary Balance
billions of dollars
Year 1 Year 2 Year 5
Federal revenues 1.5 1.9 2.7
Federal expenses 2.3 3.7 6.0
Budgetary balance -0.9 -1.8 -3.3
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

An increase in interest rates decreases the budgetary balance by $0.9 billion in the first year, $1.8 billion in the second year and $3.3 billion in the fifth year (Table A1.11). The decline stems entirely from increased expenses associated with public debt charges. The impact on debt charges rises through time as longer-term debt matures and is refinanced at higher rates. Moderating the overall impact is an increase in revenues associated with the increase in the rate of return on the Government's interest-bearing assets, which are recorded as part of other revenues. The impacts of changes in interest rates on public sector pension and benefit expenses are excluded from the sensitivity analysis.

Investing in Canada—Allocation of Budget 2016 and 2016 Fall Economic Statement Infrastructure Investments

The following tables reconcile the current allocation of the infrastructure investments announced in Budget 2016 and the 2016 Fall Economic Statement. Table A1.12 shows the current allocation of Budget 2016 infrastructure investments. Table A1.13 shows the current allocation of the long-term infrastructure investments presented in the 2016 Fall Economic Statement.

Table A1.12
Allocation of Budget 2016 Infrastructure Investments
millions of dollars
  2016–2017 2017–2018 2018–2019 2019–2020 2020–2021 2021–2022 2022–2023 2023–2024 Total
 Budget 2017 Allocation                  
Public Transit 400 1,696 1,304 0 0 0 0 0 3,400
Green Infrastructure 570 1,525 1,455 733 677 84 10 3 5,057
Social Infrastructure 1,643 1,689 53 36 20 0 0 0 3,441
Strategic Investments in Post‑Secondary Institutions 749 1,001 250 0 0 0 0 0 2,000
Rural Broadband 6 81 253 108 52 0 0 0 500
Grand Total—Budget 2017 Allocation 3,368 5,992 3,315 877 749 84 10 3 14,398
Table A1.13
Allocation of Investing in Canada—The Long-Term Infrastructure Plan
millions of dollars
  2017–2018 2018–2019 2019–2020 2020–2021 2021–2022 5-Year Total 2022– 2023 2023– 2024 2024– 2025 2025– 2026 2026– 2027 2027– 2028 Total
Total Amount Provisioned 700 4,000 4,200 5,300 6,700 20,900 7,900 8,800 9,700 11,300 11,300 11,300 81,200
Public Transit Provision 300 1,100 1,100 1,500 1,800 5,800 2,200 2,500 2,800 4,000 4,000 4,000 25,300
  Public Transit Bilateral Agreements 0 950 851 977 1,150 3,926 2,003 2,227 2,551 3,068 3,150 3,200 20,125
  Canada Infrastructure Bank 149 123 230 188 231 921 499 575 620 679 828 878 5,000
  Smart Cities Challenge 5 15 2 18 2 42 18 2 18 2 18 0 100
  Superclusters 10 13 18 18 18 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 75
    Subtotal 164 1,100 1,100 1,200 1,400 4,964 2,520 2,804 3,189 3,748 3,996 4,078 25,300
Reprofile of Public Transit Allocation -136 0 0 -300 -400 -836 320 304 389 -252 -4 78 0
Rural and Northern Provision 0 200 200 200 200 800 200 200 200 200 200 200 2,000
  Rural and Northern Communities Bilateral Agreements 0 150 150 150 200 650 200 200 200 250 250 250 2,000
    Subtotal 0 150 150 150 200 650 200 200 200 250 250 250 2,000
Reprofile of Rural and Northern Allocation 0 -50 -50 -50 0 -150 0 0 0 50 50 50 0
Green Infrastructure Provision 0 1,100 1,100 1,400 1,800 5,400 2,200 2,500 2,800 3,000 3,000 3,000 21,900
  Green Infrastructure Bilateral Agreements 0 361 393 392 450 1,596 840 1,075 1,280 1,450 1,480 1,500 9,222
  Canada Infrastructure Bank 0 138 245 353 446 1,182 514 590 635 693 693 693 5,000
  Smart Cities Challenge 0 20 2 18 2 42 18 2 18 2 18 0 100
  Disaster Mitigation and Adaptation 0 45 100 100 200 445 200 250 250 255 300 300 2,000
  Climate Adaptation and Resilience 21 33 35 35 34 157 21 21 21 21 21 21 281
  Smart Grid and Clean Electricity 0 25 25 25 25 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 100
  Emerging Renewable Energy Technologies 0 25 50 50 50 175 25 0 0 0 0 0 200
  Reducing Reliance on Diesel South of 60th parallel 0 40 40 40 40 160 40 20 0 0 0 0 220
  Electric Vehicles and Alternative Fuels 0 30 30 30 30 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 120
  Energy Efficient Building Codes 0 20 22 24 22 87 26 25 25 20 0 0 182
  Improving Indigenous Communities 0 200 200 200 200 800 200 200 200 200 200 200 2,000
  Arctic Energy Fund 0 40 40 40 40 160 40 40 40 40 40 40 400
  Superclusters 0 23 18 18 18 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 75
  Reserved Green Funding 0 0 0 76 176 252 276 276 325 320 276 276 2,000
    Subtotal 21 999 1,199 1,400 1,731 5,351 2,200 2,498 2,794 3,000 3,028 3,030 21,900
Reprofile of Green Infrastructure Allocation 21 -101 99 0 -69 -49 0 -2 -6 0 28 30 0
Trade and Transportation Provision 400 500 700 800 1,100 3,500 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,100 10,100
  Modernizing Transportation 11 16 16 17 17 76 1 0 0 0 0 0 77
  Connecting Communities by Rail and Water 300 309 324 87 100 1,120 104 87 100 96 82 89 1,9251
  National Trade Corridors Fund 31 78 156 169 184 618 230 230 230 230 230 230 2,000
  Climate Risk Assessments 3 3 3 3 3 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 16
  Canada Infrastructure Bank 0 0 0 310 431 741 588 664 708 767 767 767 5,000
  Information System 5 5 5 5 5 23 5 5 5 5 5 5 50
  Oceans Protection Plan 152 246 236 230 203 1,067 9 9 9 9 9 9 1,3251
  Heavy-Duty Vehicle and Off-Road Regulations 1 2 2 2 2 8 1 1 1 1 1 1 16
  Less: Funds in the fiscal framework and other revenues -42 -42 -42 -22 -61 -208
-17
-17 -17 -17 -17 -17 -309
    Subtotal 461 617 700 800 884 3,462 920 978 1,036 1,091 1,077 1,083 10,1001
Reprofile of Trade and Transportation Allocation 61 117 0 0 -216 -38 -180 -122 -64 -9 -23 -17 01
Social Infrastructure Provision 0 1,100 1,100 1,400 1,800 5,400 2,200 2,500 2,800 3,000 3,000 3,000 21,900
  Early Learning and Child Care 0 540 545 550 550 2,185 725 775 775 800 870 870 7,000
  Canada Cultural Spaces Fund 0 30 30 30 30 120 30 30 30 30 30 30 300
  Enabling Accessibility Fund 0 8 8 8 8 31 8 8 8 8 8 8 77
  Cultural and Recreational Bilateral Agreements 0 50 50 50 50 200 67 130 195 225 250 280 1,347
  Community Educational Infrastructure 0 4 4 4 8 20 8 8 8 12 12 12 80
  Home Care Infrastructure 0 200 250 250 300 1,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,000
  Smart Cities Challenge 0 20 2 18 2 42 18 2 18 2 18 0 100
  Improving Indigenous Communities 0 75 75 100 100 350 200 290 290 290 290 290 2,000
  Federal-Provincial-Territorial Partnership in Housing 0 0 255 255 255 765 305 355 380 455 455 455 3,170
  Support for Northern Housing 0 30 30 30 30 120 30 30 30 30 30 30 300
  National Housing Fund 10 141 266 338 428 1,184 443 597 707 701 688 682 5,000
  Housing for Indigenous Peoples Not On-Reserve 0 25 25 25 25 100 25 25 25 25 25 0 225
  Housing Research 0 27 29 28 27 111 26 26 26 26 26 0 241
  Federal Lands for Affordable Housing 2 20 20 20 20 82 20 20 20 20 20 20 202
  Tackling Homelessness 0 54 203 213 237 707 237 237 237 237 237 237 2,129
  Less: Funds in the fiscal framework and other revenues -13 -41 -103 -69 -102 -328 -70 -127 -204 -217 -178 -147 -1,271
    Subtotal -1 1,183 1,688 1,850 1,968 6,688 2,072 2,405 2,545 2,643 2,781 2,766 21,900
Reprofile of Social Infrastructure Allocation -1 83 588 450 168 1,288 -128 -95 -255 -357 -219 -234 0
Grand Total—Budget 2017 Allocation 645 4,049 4,838 5,400 6,183 21,115 7,911 8,885 9,764 10,733 11,132 11,207 81,2001
Total Reprofile of the Allocation -55 49 638 100 -517 215 11 85 64 -567 -168 -93 01
1 Connecting Communities by Rail and Water and the Oceans Protection Plan include funding to support capital projects where costs are amortized over the useful life of the asset. The 11-year totals include the remaining amortization amounts beyond 2027–28.
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